The Empty Cradle: Decoding East Asia’s Demographic Crisis

Written by Camille Azan

January 31, 2026

Should we be afraid of disappearing? The question comes to mind when you look at the recent fertility rate data in East Asian countries. Most of them are in a state of “lowest-low” fertility, which is defined by a TFR (Total Fertility Rate) at or below 1.3. This is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.

South Korea is the prime example of this phenomenon: it held the world’s lowest fertility rate between 2019 and 2024. Next month, official results will show us whether or not that was still the case in 2025.

How did South Koreans, and East Asians in general, reach that point? The answer is not a simple one, and policymakers dealing with the issue should not endeavor to find easy solutions – for they do not exist. To deal with it, you have to face the blind spots in the work culture and the family sphere. You have to think deeply about how women live and work, about their aspirations and the barriers they face daily.

Why is the decreasing fertility trend in East Asia any different from the one in Europe? Culture would be a right place to start.

Unlike Europe, where declining birth rates are often linked to individualism, East Asia’s fertility crisis is rooted in cultural and societal expectations. In Confucian societies, children are seen as a reflection of parental success, and the pressure to raise “perfect” children (academically and socially) is immense. This leads to “education fever,” where parents invest heavily in their children’s schooling, often at the expense of having more kids.

In South Korea, for example, the cost of raising a child (including private tutoring, housing, and healthcare) is among the highest in the world. Parents often feel they must choose between having fewer children and giving each child the best possible start in life.

A second factor is the persisting strong link between marriage and childbirth in East Asia. Unlike in Europe, where non-marital births are more common and socially accepted, in East Asia, having children outside of marriage remains rare and stigmatized. This means that declining marriage rates directly translate into fewer births. When young people delay marriage due to economic pressure or career goals, they automatically delay or cancel plans for children.

Another key characteristic is the mismatch between the accelerated economic modernization of East Asian countries and the gender equality standards, which are still lagging behind. While East Asian women have achieved high levels of education and professional success, social expectations at home and in the office have not kept pace. Women are expected to succeed professionally while maintaining traditional caregiving roles, which puts a double pressure on them. They face significant career penalties for having children, including stigma when coming back to work, lower wages, fewer promotions, and even job loss. In South Korea, for example, women hold only about 21% of managerial positions, and 5% of executive positions. That makes it harder for them to survive in the professional world when they have a child. And here is another stark observation: in China and South Korea, women spend about three times more time on domestic and care work than men, while in Japan, women spend roughly five times more time on these tasks. These countries have some of the highest gender gaps in unpaid labor among OECD countries. This double burden in the public and private spheres is a strong incentive to remain childless.

Governments in East Asia have introduced a range of policies to boost birth rates, including tax breaks and housing assistance for married couples, extended parental leave, cash subsidies and the increase of the number of public childcare centers. However, these measures have had limited success. This is due to the fact that many policies focus on financial incentives or short-term fixes, rather than addressing the root causes of low fertility, such as workplace culture and gender inequality. They are “band-aid solutions”. Moreover, policies often assume traditional gender roles, such as offering “reduced working hours for women during childrearing,” which reinforces the idea that women should be primary caregivers. This fails to challenge the underlying gender norms that discourage women from having children.

So, how should policymakers approach the issue?

Correcting policy flaws could be a first step. Some policies are incoherent or exclude large portions of the population. For example, in South Korea, over a third of working women were excluded from family reform benefits because they were not covered by national employment insurance. 

There is also a need for better problem definition. Policymakers often treat low fertility as a demographic problem to be solved by "making more babies" to support the economy. This approach can be problematic as it instrumentalizes women’s bodies and ignores that babies born today won’t enter the workforce for twenty years. A more sustainable approach would focus on increasing productivity and ensuring gender equality rather than just hitting fertility targets.

For instance, South Korea’s productivity is plagued by the country’s culture of “presenteeism”, which is the practice of staying at work long after tasks are completed, simply to appear dedicated and show loyalty to one’s boss. This culture not only harms productivity but also leaves little time for personal life, including raising children. This is why the government needs to reform workplace culture: companies must shift to output-based evaluations (instead of valuing long but useless hours) and respect employees’ time outside of work. Effective measures have been put in place by some organizations: these good practices should be encouraged and spread widely. For example, Severance Hospital has experimented with four-day workweeks. Early results show improved work-life balance and even increased productivity, as employees return to work more focused and energized. Private companies have also experimented with four-day workweeks (including conglomerates such as Samsung Electronics, SK Group, and Kakao), as well as flexible hours, remote work options, mental health support and better parental leave policies. 

An additional action to consider would be to follow in Germany’s footsteps and enact law reforms to improve mothers’ job security. German law requires employers to re-hire women to the same position after their maternity leave.

In any case, studies confirm that supporting work-life balance for parents is the most effective way to encourage higher and more stable fertility levels over time. It seems that East Asian countries need more flexible working conditions, more support for employees' mental health, a stricter fight against workplace discrimination, and structural reforms to address housing and education costs. When people no longer have to choose between their jobs and their homes, the numbers will follow.

Sources

Medwid, J. D. (2024). The East Asian Fertility Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses [Honors Thesis, University at Albany, State University of New York]. Scholars Archive. https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/all_honors/38.

Boydell, V., Mori, R., Shahrook, S., & Gietel-Basten, S. (2023). Low fertility and fertility policies in the Asia-Pacific region. Global Health & Medicine, 5(5), 271–277. https://doi.org/10.35772/ghm.2023.01058.

Yeung, W.-J. J., & Abalos, J. B. (2025). Social determinants of low fertility in Asia: a comparative review of trends in East, Southeast and South Asia. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 65, 101724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101724.

Al Jazeera. (2025, September 4). South Korea trials 4-day weeks and half-days for its stressed-out workers. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/9/4/south-korea-trials-4-day-weeks-and-half-days-for-its-stressed-out-workers

Ahn, A. (2023, March 19). South Korea has the world's lowest fertility rate, a struggle with no clear end. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2023/03/19/1163341684/south-korea-fertility-rate

Shao, J. & Lee, Y. (2023, November 29). Gender norms and women’s double burden in East Asia. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/gender-norms-and-womens-double-burden-in-east-asia/

The Chosun Daily. (2026, January 26). Exclusive: South Korea's Fertility Rate Rebounds to 0.85 in First Half. https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2026/01/24/IVHGRTNWXBHH3DNZRE4UNVBC4U